Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
